How will the iPad's success be defined?

I've had a lot of conversions with people lately about whether or not the iPad would be successful. The problem with these conversations is that we didn't talk about what success looks like.

Is success 1 million units first week sales? Nexus One did 20k units, Droid 250k, iPhone 3GS 1.6M (from Flurry). Apple sold 75M iPhone and iPod touch devices in 2009. About 20M netbooks were sold in 2009. Apple sold about 6M Apple TVs in 2009, and that's "just a hobby" for them.

Maybe initial sales don't matter and the iPad will be judged by its adoption 3 years from now, by the copycats it inspires or by the way changes the personal computer industry. After all, Apple reinvented the desktop PC industry once, but ultimately lost it to Microsoft. I doubt they will make the same mistake again.

Update:Apple just announced 2 million units sold in the first 60 days. It took over two years for Apple to sell its first 2 million iPods. The original iPhone took about four months to reach the 2 million mark. I'd call the iPad's launch a success.

iPad Swivel Camera

I have a theory as to why the iPad does not have a built in camera. I think Apple will announce a camera accessory that plugs into the dock connector and swivels 180 degrees to point forward or backward. There is no "up" on the iPad -- all orientations are required to be supported by applications -- so it does not matter that the dock connector is on the "bottom" of the device. In the front-facing position, the camera would enable video chat. Turn it around and you can take pictures with the gazillion iPhone apps with that function built in. This solves the two camera problem, gives people the camera functions they want, and gives Apple another high-markup item to sell.

P.S. Sorry for the slew of iPad posts, but I think it's a pretty cool device.

iPad Fills the Gap

Apple's line up is just good business. They need something to sell in the $500-1000 range and are unwilling to produce a cheaper laptop that compromises their standards and would tarnish their reputation. The iPad fits in there just perfectly. It fills the gap and completes the progression from a simple music player to a full blown computer. Whatever you're looking for and whatever your budget, they've got something to sell you. For only a little bit more, they've got something even better to sell you.

• $59 - iPod shuffle 2GB
• $79 - iPod shuffle 4GB
• $149 - iPod nano 8GB
• $179 - iPod nano 16GB
• $199 - iPod touch 8GB
• $299 - iPod touch 16GB
• $399 - iPod touch 64GB
• $499 - iPad 16GB
• $599 - iPad 32GB
• $699 - iPad 64GB
• $729 - iPad 3G 32GB
• $829 - iPad 3G 64GB
• $999 - MacBook

I don't see Apple selling a laptop for less that $999 anytime in the foreseeable future.

Plus, for whatever device they sell you, they've got content to sell you as well.

Apple Reinvents Yet Another Category

Apple is on a roll. While the iPad very much underwhelmed me (what could have lived up to all the hype?), I still think it will redefine the category and make it better for everyone.

Way back when, Apple brought the GUI to the personal computer and to the masses. They didn't invent the personal computer. They didn't invent the GUI. They did make a great product that set the direction of human-computer interaction for the next few decades. Apple wasn't able to capitalize on what they accomplished and are now somewhere around 5% of the PC market share.

Apple didn't invent the MP3 player. They reinvented it by making it easy to use and cool. They now own the portable music player market. Apple didn't just reinvent the way we listen to music, they reinvented the music market place with the iTunes store.

Apple didn't invent the mobile phone, nor the PDA. They didn't invent the touch screen. They did put them together in a way nobody really expected. (This is starting to sound like a 3M commercial.) The iPhone is extremely elegant and easy to use. It set a new model for human-computer interaction, one dictated largely by the size and power constraints of the device. No pointer, no windows, no drop-down menus, no multitasking, limited typing. The result is a set of task-focused applications that are pretty darn intuitive. It's not how we were used to interactive with a phone, nor a desktop or laptop. In many ways, it's better. Apple took the opportunity to simplify for the better. No file management, minimal configuration, no confusion about how to install or remove applications.

The iPad is just a big iPod Touch. That's disappointing in some ways. But it's also what makes the iPad awesome. To appreciate this awesomeness, one first has to understand why tablet PCs have sucked. The big reason: Windows. The problem with Windows (and Windows apps) is that it wasn't designed for use with the constraints a tablet imposes; it is ill-suited for use on a device without a pointing device, keyboard and relatively large screen. The same would be true of Linux/Gnome/KDE or Mac OS.

The physical constraints of the iPhone required the iPhone OS designers to rethink how to build applications. It turned out these simplified, task focused applications were really easy to use. I found myself using Safari, Mail and Facebook on my iPhone even though my MacBook was sitting right next to me. There are many tasks which do not require the complexity of desktop applications, but do need more screen real estate than an iPhone. There has also been a shift over the last 15 years or so from using computers for content production to content consumption. This is where the iPad fits perfectly. You're not going to write a textbook on the iPad, but you may read one. You're not going to use Photoshop on the iPad to edit a photo shoot for a magazine, but you may view it with the iPad. The iPad will not replace the desktop computer and everything it does, but it can replace it for what most people casually use a desktop for. Apple successfully reinvented the tablet computer.

Whether or not this version of the iPad is wildly successful is irrelevant. Apple will inspire copycats who will take the design and build on it, as Google has done with Android. This will make Apple up its game. Everyone wins.