Smartphone Install Base

There's been a lot of buzz about Android's amazing growth in the last quarter. Assuming the vast majority of customers don't buy a new phone more often than every two years, the install base would reflect the sum of sales over the last 8 quarters.

Worldwide Smartphone Sales to End Users by OS 3Q08-2Q10 (Thousands of Units)

Symbian	166,463.3	46%
RIM	69,370.6	19%
iOS	50,791.9	14%
Windows Mobile	30,596.9	8%
Android	22,619.2	6%
Linux	17,440.4	5%
Other	5,699.6	2%

Note this doesn't include business sales, which would likely boost RIM a lot and iOS a little. Nor does this include devices other than phones, e.g. iPod touch and iPad.

5 Device Categories

Computing devices tend to fit into one of these categories, based on the device's physical characteristics:

1. Stuff that fits in your pocket (e.g. phone)
2. Stuff that you can carry around comfortably (e.g. tablet)
3. Stuff that you can carry around in a bag (e.g. laptop)
4. Stuff that you can fit in a back seat (e.g. desktop)
5. Stuff that requires a truck to move (e.g. rack of servers)

Devices should be optimized for their category. If you want something that will fit in your pocket, you want the best thing that will fit in your pocket, but not so small that you'll lose it. If you're going to carry around a laptop bag, you want the best laptop, but you don't want something so big that it's too heavy or so small that you might as well just use your phone.

I don't get some of these new devices, like the Dell Streak, that are just a little too big to fit in your pocket. I think the Nokia MIDs are there too. Once you move into category #2, you might as well make the most of it. I think netbooks are right in between 2 and 3. They could be carried by themselves, but they're awkward to use with one hand and you often have to bring a power brick along. That's why they're really only attractive from a price standpoint.

Of course that pricing thing plays a big role in decisions, too, which is a significant factor in there being such a broad spectrum within each category.

iPad Fills the Gap

Apple's line up is just good business. They need something to sell in the $500-1000 range and are unwilling to produce a cheaper laptop that compromises their standards and would tarnish their reputation. The iPad fits in there just perfectly. It fills the gap and completes the progression from a simple music player to a full blown computer. Whatever you're looking for and whatever your budget, they've got something to sell you. For only a little bit more, they've got something even better to sell you.

• $59 - iPod shuffle 2GB
• $79 - iPod shuffle 4GB
• $149 - iPod nano 8GB
• $179 - iPod nano 16GB
• $199 - iPod touch 8GB
• $299 - iPod touch 16GB
• $399 - iPod touch 64GB
• $499 - iPad 16GB
• $599 - iPad 32GB
• $699 - iPad 64GB
• $729 - iPad 3G 32GB
• $829 - iPad 3G 64GB
• $999 - MacBook

I don't see Apple selling a laptop for less that $999 anytime in the foreseeable future.

Plus, for whatever device they sell you, they've got content to sell you as well.

Apple Reinvents Yet Another Category

Apple is on a roll. While the iPad very much underwhelmed me (what could have lived up to all the hype?), I still think it will redefine the category and make it better for everyone.

Way back when, Apple brought the GUI to the personal computer and to the masses. They didn't invent the personal computer. They didn't invent the GUI. They did make a great product that set the direction of human-computer interaction for the next few decades. Apple wasn't able to capitalize on what they accomplished and are now somewhere around 5% of the PC market share.

Apple didn't invent the MP3 player. They reinvented it by making it easy to use and cool. They now own the portable music player market. Apple didn't just reinvent the way we listen to music, they reinvented the music market place with the iTunes store.

Apple didn't invent the mobile phone, nor the PDA. They didn't invent the touch screen. They did put them together in a way nobody really expected. (This is starting to sound like a 3M commercial.) The iPhone is extremely elegant and easy to use. It set a new model for human-computer interaction, one dictated largely by the size and power constraints of the device. No pointer, no windows, no drop-down menus, no multitasking, limited typing. The result is a set of task-focused applications that are pretty darn intuitive. It's not how we were used to interactive with a phone, nor a desktop or laptop. In many ways, it's better. Apple took the opportunity to simplify for the better. No file management, minimal configuration, no confusion about how to install or remove applications.

The iPad is just a big iPod Touch. That's disappointing in some ways. But it's also what makes the iPad awesome. To appreciate this awesomeness, one first has to understand why tablet PCs have sucked. The big reason: Windows. The problem with Windows (and Windows apps) is that it wasn't designed for use with the constraints a tablet imposes; it is ill-suited for use on a device without a pointing device, keyboard and relatively large screen. The same would be true of Linux/Gnome/KDE or Mac OS.

The physical constraints of the iPhone required the iPhone OS designers to rethink how to build applications. It turned out these simplified, task focused applications were really easy to use. I found myself using Safari, Mail and Facebook on my iPhone even though my MacBook was sitting right next to me. There are many tasks which do not require the complexity of desktop applications, but do need more screen real estate than an iPhone. There has also been a shift over the last 15 years or so from using computers for content production to content consumption. This is where the iPad fits perfectly. You're not going to write a textbook on the iPad, but you may read one. You're not going to use Photoshop on the iPad to edit a photo shoot for a magazine, but you may view it with the iPad. The iPad will not replace the desktop computer and everything it does, but it can replace it for what most people casually use a desktop for. Apple successfully reinvented the tablet computer.

Whether or not this version of the iPad is wildly successful is irrelevant. Apple will inspire copycats who will take the design and build on it, as Google has done with Android. This will make Apple up its game. Everyone wins.

The Next Level of Bible Study

It occurred to me while working on the Logos iPhone app that there have been a number of technologic breakthroughs over the last few thousand years that have been transformative in how they advance the study of scripture.

• Translation of the Bible into one's own language.
• Printing of the Bible providing a cheap, portable copy.
• Computerization of the Bible, indexing for search and linking to other resources.

I think now we have reached the next level of Bible study tooling. With the Logos iPhone app you have a mobile library that fits in your pocket. There many different translations of the Bible, original language texts, reverse interlinears and text comparisons. There are help resources such as dictionaries, commentaries, charts and maps. Everything is cross referenced. Everything is indexed for nearly instantaneous search. Because it is an Internet-based application, it is virtually infinitely expandable.

Think about that for a minute. In my pocket, right now, is a device that provides me a virtually infinite amount of information useful for Bible study, presented in an easy to use, organized manner. It blew my mind a little bit when I realized that.

I think the Logos iPhone app represents the next technological breakthrough that takes Bible study to another level. But at Logos, we're never satisfied. Wait until you see how we can use these tools to help people not only more and better Bible study, but also also help people do more of it together.